Experts Predict Macau’s Gaming Industry Will Rebound in 2025
Macau’s gaming sector started 2025 with a slight setback as gross gaming revenue (GGR) for January fell 5.6% year-over-year to MOP 18.25 billion ($2.27 billion), according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ).
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Experts Forecast an 8% Increase in Macau’s Casino Revenue
While this figure was larger than December’s, it did not meet industry expectations, particularly given the usual surge in tourism around Chinese New Year. Industry analysts anticipated a slow start to the year, drawing comparisons to early 2024 when strong VIP gambling activity boosted revenue. January’s decline followed a December impacted by political events, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Macau, which led to a drop in tourist numbers.
Adding to the complexity, new visa policies introduced on January 1 aimed to increase tourist flow from Zhuhai and Hengqin, but their impact has yet to materialize. Experts believe broader economic factors, shifts in consumer spending habits, and conditions in mainland China played a more significant role in the month’s underwhelming performance.
Despite the slow start, analysts remain optimistic about Macau’s gaming industry and are forecasting an 8% annual increase in revenue for 2025. This surpasses the government’s estimate of MOP 240 billion ($29.9 billion) in total GGR. The positive outlook is driven by improved economic conditions in China, relaxed travel regulations, and a return to more traditional financial operations in Macau’s casinos.
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February’s Chinese New Year Could Determine Macau’s Recovery
Financial institutions have presented varying projections for Macau’s February performance during the Chinese New Year Golden Week. Some forecasts predict just 3.5% growth compared to last year, while others suggest an increase of up to 11.4%, depending on holiday gambling activity.
Analysts at JPMorgan believe that Chinese New Year revenue will be key to assessing whether January’s decline was an anomaly or indicative of a longer-term trend. They estimate that daily gaming revenue during the peak holiday period must exceed MOP 1 billion ($122.9 million) for the industry to align with market expectations.
Macau’s casino industry has been recovering since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 2024’s total GGR reaching MOP 226.8 billion ($28.3 billion), a 23.9% increase from the previous year. However, the sector has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels and remains far below its 2013 peak of MOP 360.7 billion ($45.2 billion).
To keep momentum in 2025, Macau will need continued policy support from Beijing, stronger consumer confidence, and an increase in international visitors. Analysts will closely monitor February’s revenue figures to determine if the city’s gaming sector can rebound after January’s disappointing performance.
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